Health Policy Project

The Health Policy Project ended in 2016. Work continued under Health Policy Plus (HP+) until 2022.


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Projecting Ethiopian Demographics from 2012-2050 Using the Spectrum Suite of Models
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Author(s): Alemayhu Bekele and Yihunie Lakew

Primary Language: English

Date: 7/1/2014


With support from the USAID-funded Health Policy Project, the Ethiopian Public Health Association applied the DemProj module of the Spectrum suite of models to project the size of the Ethiopian population from 2012 to 2050. The projection showed that the population is expected to increase steadily from 83.7 million in 2012 to 171.8 million in 2050. The young (0 to 14 years) age group is projected to decline after 2030, while the working-age population (15 to 64 years) and older age population (65 years+) are expected to continue growing. Ethiopia’s window for capturing a possible demographic dividend is projected to peak around 2040. Based on the data from the model, recommendations were made to accelerate access to family planning services and to increase investments in health, education, and other development sectors to take advantage of the demographic dividend.

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Brief    DemProj    Family Planning/Reproductive Health (FP/RH)    Modeling    Spectrum    Ethiopia  
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The Health Policy Project is a five-year cooperative agreement funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development under Agreement No. AID-OAA-A-10-00067, beginning September 30, 2010. The project's HIV-related activities are supported by the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). It is implemented by Futures Group, in collaboration with Plan International USA, Avenir Health (previously Futures Institute), Partners in Population and Development, Africa Regional Office (PPD ARO), Population Reference Bureau (PRB), RTI International, and White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA). The information provided on this Web site is not official U.S. Government information and does not represent the views or positions of the U.S. Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government.

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