The Health Policy Project ended in 2016. Work continued under Health Policy Plus (HP+) until 2022.
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In many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, high fertility rates are starting to decline, presenting growing potential to benefit from an opportunity known as the demographic dividend. The dividend refers to faster economic growth that is caused in part by changes in population age structure. It can contribute to both national development and improved well-being for families and communities, but in order for it to be successfully achieved, countries must implement integrated programming to promote population change and invest in human capital and economic development.
To meet growing enthusiasm among policymakers for the potential economic benefits of the demographic dividend, the Health Policy Project has developed DemDiv, a new, customizable projection model. DemDiv is a user-friendly, evidence-based tool that can inform policymakers in high-fertility countries of the potential benefits of the demographic dividend and increase their support for investments in the multisectoral policies required to achieve those benefits. The model, which can be applied in any country, allows users to design multiple scenarios showing how the combined power of policy investments in family planning, education, and the economy can generate a demographic dividend not possible under the status quo.
DemDiv was created by the Health Policy Project (HPP), with support from USAID. It is available at no cost for use by anyone. All uses of DemDiv should credit HPP and USAID as the source of the model, using the citation below. HPP does not verify the results of applications performed independently, and results should be presented as estimates. HPP kindly requests that individuals, institutions, and programs using the model inform Futures Group of such use so that we better understand its reach and impact, by contacting policyinfo@futuresgroup.com. Users are also welcome to submit comments and suggestions to improve the model to the same address.
Suggested citation: Health Policy Project and United States Agency for International Development (USAID). 2014. DemDiv Model. Washington, DC: Futures Group, Health Policy Project.
This page includes links to download the DemDiv model, to its technical guide and users' manual, and to policy briefs and news stories from the countries where DemDiv has been applied to date.
- Demographic Dividend Opportunities for Kenya: Results from the DemDiv Model
( pdf 1,952 kb ) - Harnessing the Demographic Dividend: Accelerating Socioeconomic Transformation in Uganda
( pdf 194 kb ) - Modeling the Demographic Dividend: Technical Guide to the DemDiv Model
( pdf 1,247 kb ) - DemDiv Model (February 2015)
( xlsm 504 kb )
